Interviews of the Minister of Defence about The Force Structure Review

Host: We will speak about the reforms in your ministry as well, because recently much has been said about the fact that unlike other sectors, the sector you are in charge of remains unchanged, and you do not do enough. I am sure that you will not agree with an opinion of this sort.

Anguelov: No, I will not agree.

Host: We have started; in fact we have announced our conversation in a way that would be of interest to the spectators: how many servicemen will be discharged in the long run? Do you have a precise idea?

A. Anguelov: This is not an end in itself, and we do not want to only discharge personnel. In the course of this Review that we conduct, a process that is mandatory, we started decreasing the personnel in a new way, following new logic, from the top down. In the last 3-4 years, the central administration has grown beyond measure, and we had to eliminate 472 positions, from which 257 were taken by real living persons. We passed to the next phase, the high level command units, the Headquarters of the Services that also had been exaggeratedly increased during the last 3 years. Irrespective of the fact that the Bulgarian army had been downsized, the headquarters as a rule remained, and we reduced the number of personnel in them: 297 positions, 167 of them taken by real living servicemen and civilians. We decreased the personnel in the Agency and discharged 161 persons that had worked for it. Therefore we started, let us say, a real review of what we practically need. Then we touch upon the Bulgarian army as it is. There are the combat units, logistic and provision units etc. Tomorrow I will listen to the reports of the sixteen working groups that work in different directions. Experts from the Navy, the Land Forces and civilian experts are included in these groups. The servicemen themselves suggest what should be done, offering different versions in accordance with the political guidance I have provided for them. To be precise: my political guidance is directed towards defending, in the first place, what the possible scenarios are, i.e. scenarios in which the Bulgarian army would be necessary; then to assess what tasks result from these scenarios; to take into consideration the provisions on the Bulgarian army stated in the Constitution, and using these as a base, to analyze what capabilities the Bulgarian army should possess. What is the meaning of capabilities? What type of personnel there should be, how many soldiers, sergeants and officers, the way they are distributed, in what type of structures, what armaments and equipment they must have, and what other infrastructure they need to be able to do their job.
We face a rather serious period when, on the basis of the structures I have approved, we have to make a real assessment what we will discharge as you said. There will inevitably be layoffs. We will not be able to increase the personnel of the Bulgarian army as a whole; however separate segments and units will be considerably increased. Other segments and units will probably no longer exist because…

Host: Could you please give an example? Perhaps you can name…

A. Anguelov: No, I cannot tell you anything; let everything be completed. I would like the servicemen, about whom I am speaking at the moment, to know that nothing is done as an end in itself. And if something is done, they themselves will understand why it is done. Why some capabilities are no longer necessary and have become redundant, and why other capabilities have become necessary etc. Additionally, we seek to act in such a manner that our budget is normally distributed. Look, you cannot have a budget, in which less than 1 per cent of the budget is allocated to capital expenditures while grand-scale infrastructure is available in the army. This is amazing. If you find an army in an EU member country, or in a NATO-member country I will treat you, let me not say to 15-year –old, let me say to 21-year-old whisky. Why - because you will not find such an army! An army that has seven and a half million capital expenditures is an absurd. Nowhere the armies fall under 20 per cent of their whole budget, allocated to capital expenditures. That is why I am glad that the Government understands the state we are in during 2010, after the decrease of more than 400 million in the budget compared to the one of last year etc. 

If we downsize the army, we will reduce the administration too.

In the autumn, I’ll go to Afghanistan
“Write to me in Facebook,” says the Minister of Defence Anu Anguelov

Rumors are going around in the administration that there will be another wave of layoffs after the one that has already passed.  Is that true?

We launched a very important process that soon has to come to a conclusion: the Force Structure Review. The administration of the Ministry of Defence exists because of the army, and not vice versa. Therefore, when we conduct the review of the structure and outline what sort of activities we intend to carry our with a view to restructuring, all this will affect the administration as well.

In other words, if you downsize the army, there can be new layoffs in the administration?

You are absolutely right. In my opinion 980 persons are too many for the administration. I have said earlier as well that the optimal size of the administration is not more than 700 persons. I think that it is exactly through the Force Structure Review, with the review of the high level command units, that we will have this opportunity. Another way to reduce and make more effective the administration is to put an end to activities that are untypical of the Ministry of Defence. We are already doing this.
I think that that there still is a broad scope for analysis and further, more efficient restructuring of the administration and the command units.

You said that in August the Force Structure Review had to be ready. Is it already clear if there will be further reduction of the troops?

I would not like to predetermine any issues. Therefore, I will not mention figures although there is a definite vision of what the armed forces will be in 2015. Everything will be absolutely transparent, and all will be published in the White Book on Defence that will be released in September.  Then we will be able to say: these are the armed forces we need. We will have to undertake a series of painful measures; however they will make it possible for the army after 2015 to develop steadily, consistently and evolutionarily, and not on the basis of “revolutionary” reforms. One of the major tasks in 2011 will be the reorganization and restructuring of the armed forces. We have to bring this process to a conclusion in 2012. From 2013 we will try to restore the process of modernization. This includes eventually the acquisition of new armaments and equipment. When in 2015 we state that we have implemented this Review, we have to very clearly point out the criteria according to which this has happened. Then I could make a true assessment of my own work, and of the work of my team.

ANU ANGUELOV: THE STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH USA HAS TO DEEPEN AND BROADEN IN ALL POSSIBLE WAYS

Reporter: What is the assessment in the USA of the latest reorganizations, and in general of the way the Force Structure Review is conducted?

Anguelov: I let the Secretary of Defence Mr. Gates know about the progress we have made in accomplishing the Force Structure Review, and I expressed gratitude for the methodological assistance that the American side offers us with regard to conducting the Review. In fact I informed the Secretary of Defence about what we have achieved so far and how we intend to move forward, what plans we have on the structure of the armed forces in the future. Within the framework of the full application of the agreements between the two countries on bilateral cooperation in the sphere of defense, we agreed to develop plans – long-term plans for modernization of the armed forces, including ones with the participation of the American side. 

The most important message is that the strategic partnership with the USA has to deepen and broaden in all possible ways. This is the basic pillar of our defence policy in the future. 

The Minister of Defence Anu Anguelov: 300 persons in the high level command units will be discharged. We will inform the President about the reform; however we will make the decisions ourselves.

Nikola Lalov: It is expected that in September you will introduce the White Book on Defence and armed forces to the Parliament. The new vision on the size of the army has to be an integral part in it…

Anu Anguelov: Wehave at our disposal sufficient military and civilian expertise to form this vision. At the end of August, it will become clear how we regard the development of the armed forces until 2015. This document will be an analysis of the work accomplished in the last years, and it will outline the basic directions of development in the future. On the basis of the White Book, there will be concrete figures. A new plan for the development of the armed forces until 2015 will be developed, in which the resources will be distributed to Services and tasked directions.

The vision of a smaller but a mobile and modern army is like a mantra. I cannot give you now an answer if the army will be smaller or how much smaller it will be. At present, the preparation of the analysis is underway: 16 working groups are doing their job, and I directly supervise one of them. We have provided them with information on the minimal capabilities that our armed forces have to possess, and we have stated the resources that we expect will be allocated – i.e. the scope in which the development of the armed forces has to be achieved.

Reporter:  This is a very good promise; however, it is outside your mandate. What will you do so that by the end of your mandate there is an increase in salaries in real terms?

A. Anguelov: I am sure that at the end of this government’s mandate there will be an increase in the servicemen’s salaries. The issue, however, is of a different nature; the issue is that there should be a consensus on the policy in the sphere of defense, and this consensus will be reached by voting for the White Book on defense and armed forces on the part of the National Assembly.  To greater or lesser extent, the political powers are repeatedly represented in the National Assembly. The above gives me grounds to think that after the completion of this government’s mandate, this policy will continue to be supported in the future in the next National Assembly by the next governments. This is, in fact, the reason for us to prepare such a document that will become the base of a plan for development of the armed forces until 2015. I suppose this plan will be successfully implemented, and will serve as a basis for the next governments that will be able to work in a less troubled manner on thee upkeep of the Bulgarian army, not thinking about constantly going on reforms. We want to put an end to reforms as a revolutionary concept, and to pass to evolutionary development of the army, gradually in a series of aspects that we will outline in the White Book on defence.

What is the most important issue that has to be changed so that the Bulgarian army can build capabilities adequate to the requirements it has to meet?

In the first place, we have to define which these necessary capabilities are which the Bulgarian army has to build. For us, 2010 is a year of strategic revision. The Force Structure Review is launched. Its goal is to reorganize and build single set interoperable armed forces, taking into consideration the both available and the prognosticated financial resources. Practically, this means that we have a priority to build capabilities aimed at fulfilling tasks in peacetime in managing crises of military and non-military nature i.e. to build expeditionary forces able to participate in joint and expeditionary operations while reaching a balance between combat units, combat support and logistic units.

The results of this Review will be reflected in a White Book on Defence and armed forces that will be presented to the National Assembly.

The development of the National Security Strategy of the Republic of Bulgaria is underway at present, and it will serve as a base for the development of the National Defence Strategy. Processes of this nature take place within NATO as well. A new Strategic Concept is being developed that will outline the basic directions of the Alliance’s future development.

What we have to definitely change is the systematic violation of the principles of correct and transparent management; the deviation of resources allocated to the provision of troops towards other activities that are untypical of defence.

What is your prognosis: when can we put an end to the reform in the army?

The reform will be determined by the results of the Review about which I spoke. Our basic goal is to make an in-depth analysis of the armed forces’ structure and to generate a vision on how to develop them in the future, taking into account the available financial resources; to build a unified structure of the armed forces possessing capabilities allowing them to solve the full volume of problems engendered by the expected scenarios and the prognoses for the development of the geo-strategic security environment.

The truth is that for the people in the army “the reform” has turned into an obscene word because they relate it to the lack of clarity and insecurity. With that whole process and the White Book on defense and the armed forces, we would like to give the people a vision towards the forthcoming changes; we would like to offer them information, and make transparent the processes of defense policy planning.

Under the conditions of crisis and seriously decreased budget of the MoD, what are the greatest expenses in the Ministry incurred by?

Our priority is the development of combat capabilities, preparation of the servicemen, provision for the missions, getting free from activities untypical of the Bulgarian army. We seek maximal efficiency in spending the financial resources allocated to supporting the fulfillment of the army’s tasks. The income of the servicemen and civilians in the system of the Ministry will be preserved.

To what degree the changes in the administration will have a positive influence on the management and the state of the Bulgarian army?

Practically, these are two exceptionally important questions. The first one is related to increasing the efficiency of the leadership and management of the Bulgarian army. The second one lays an emphasis on the effect of this management upon the qualitative state of the army as expressed by effective and efficient capabilities.

The administration capacity and the strategic management will be improved through the introduction of an integrated model of defense and armed forces management, through achieving a balance between the civilian and military expertise.

One of the major tasks we have is the acquisition in practical terms of the new culture and technology of leadership and management, or expressed in modern terms, the new culture of defense management. After the new structural regulations enter into force on 25 May, we have to practically learn and use the modern rules of defense management where the civilian and military expertise will act together in order to formulate the tasks and approaches capable of  solving the problems in the defense system as a whole and  in the Bulgarian army. Thus the efficiency in the activities of the Joint Operational Command and of the headquarters for the preparation of the troops and forces will increase.  In the long run, the effectively working administration will establish an environment, in which the army will be able to efficiently fulfill its tasks.

What would you like the Bulgarian army to be in 2010?

A strong and modern army of professionals possessing  a high social rating. I expect that the Bulgarian army will strengthen its position as a military power of modern organization, allowing for flexible decisions on participation in operations of a different nature and conditions, equipped with effective arms platforms, able to conduct joint operations on all levels, having a high percentage of usability in peacetime and during crises, an army doctrinally, organizationally and technologically interoperable with the armies of our Allies in NATO.

If we cease looking back at the work of your predecessors and turn forward, what are your most pressing tasks as Minister of Defence?

We have so many tasks in 2010 that even if we work 24 hours a day there still will not be enough time. The most important that has to be done this year is to reconsider what the army has to be within a period of five-six years.
Can we act in such a way as to achieve a format, which we can use for a much longer time than we have done so far. In other words, we have to provide the final pattern of the army’s structure until 2015. Naturally, the army is a conservative mechanism that should not be subjected to trials too often. It is a fact that the people in the system are tired of the constantly ongoing reforms, and that decreases their motivation.
I think, however, that with this Review (analysis of the structure, the tasks and the equipment of the army – Ed. Remark) which is being launched now and has to be completed at the end of the year, we will achieve much of what the servicemen would like to know i.e. that they will have security in the course of at least a ten- year period after 2015.

Does somebody demand of you to conduct a review of this nature? In the past years such reviews have constantly been done.

It is not necessary for anyone to demand that of me. It is indispensable to do it for a number of reasons. Never so far the force structure review has been done on the base of the capabilities necessary for the army; these were done on the base of what was available at the moment, and what was necessary to downsize in order to achieve savings. No account was taken of what capabilities were disrupted and what the whole structures would produce as a result.
Now the Review is based on a reconsideration of the necessary minimal military capabilities that the country has to possess.
It is evident that the Bulgarian people cannot allocate as much means to the needs of defence as it has done so far. We have to eliminate the disproportions between what the army is and what is allocated to the upkeep of the army. So far, new armaments have been purchased both for the Air Force and for the Navy, and seemingly new capabilities have been acquired, but at the same time they cannot be used in a hostile environment.

You are speaking of the acquisition of helicopters…   

The helicopters and the frigates, they are of armaments of expired resource.  I would like to once again underline that each acquisition of new armaments has to be based on what it contributes to the capabilities of the army, and not on the supposition that a deal has to be concluded by all means.
A number of governments have committed themselves to it however the country does not possess new capabilities in the long run.

Your words leave me with the impression that your assessment of the military reform so far is rather negative, i.e. that the reformed has failed.

I cannot say that the reform failed one hundred per cent.  I can state that it was conducted only for the sake of saying that there was a reform going on. Much time was wasted especially in the period 1992-1998.

Shall we expect new downsizing of the army after the end of the Force Structure Review?

I cannot say anything in advance. By the end of May, we will downsize the administration at the Ministry of Defence by 32%.  We will reduce the size of the Agency “Social Activities of the MoD” by 34% and we will change its functions.
I can firmly state there will be a reduction in the command units at high level. By 20 April, a working group headed by the Chief of Defence has to put forward a suggestion on the new structure of the command units. These should be clear by 6 May.

Do you have an idea of how many Generals will leave the army?

There will be a reduction of some ranks for certain positions. Perhaps the number of the Generals will be reduced by two. There will be no positions for Generals at certain international structures of NATO – for example at the Headquarters in Skopje, Tirana and Izmir.

A new modernization plan follows each Defence Review. Shall we expect the start of large-scale projects?

We can say that in 2010-201 there will be no projects for acquisition of new armaments and equipment. We will use some programs developed in the interest of the participants in the operations in Afghanistan. These are programs of the USA aimed at providing assistance for the partners.
It is possible to acquire new armaments and equipment for the contingents that will participate in Afghanistan. Our greatest problem is to conduct the Air Policing operation in the Air Force.
We set the task before ourselves to develop the vision and be able to tell what is necessary in order to go on fulfilling this task. In 2011, we will most probably make a decision on what types of new platforms we will acquire for the Air Force.

The interview was made by: Panayot Angarev